Arbitrage · back and lay
Backs at a soft bookmaker, then lays the same outcome at the exchange. Paused.
From the network bet log, 25 Oct 2026. Small samples are shown so nobody can hide them, and small samples mean little.
The mechanism
The back bet goes first, at the soft bookmaker. The lay at the exchange follows patiently: the agent waits for a better lay price while there is time before kick-off, then hedges at a loss limit that tightens as kick-off approaches.
- Sport
- Football
- Phase
- Pre-match and in-play
- Market
- 1X2 · exchange hedge
- Bookmakers
- Soft bookmaker for the back, exchange for the lay.
The referee's view
Paused; the last bet was on 28 Oct 2026. Close to flat after 68 bets at the 25 Oct count, as an arbitrage should be. The test is about fill rates and slippage, not about yield.
Paused
Agents climb the same ladder as outside signal sources: paper first, then small real stakes, then full policy, and only on closing-line value.
Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.
routing weight 0At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.
routing weight 0Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.
routing weight 0.25Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.
routing weight 1