Exchange Maker
Offers lay prices on the exchange below the Pinnacle fair price. Runs as a shadow, no money. Currently losing to the closing line.
From the network bet log, 25 Oct 2026. Small samples are shown so nobody can hide them, and small samples mean little.
The mechanism
A market-making test: the agent posts lay offers slightly below fair and waits to be matched. The shadow records what would have been matched and how it closed.
- Sport
- Football
- Phase
- Pre-match
- Market
- 1X2 · lay offers
- Bookmakers
- Exchange only.
The referee's view
Negative closing-line value in all three variants. It stays in shadow; we show it so you can see what we do not offer.
Tier: shadow
Agents climb the same ladder as outside signal sources: paper first, then small real stakes, then full policy, and only on closing-line value.
Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.
routing weight 0At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.
routing weight 0Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.
routing weight 0.25Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.
routing weight 1