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pausedBasketball · Pre-match · Money line · favourites

Basketball Favourites

The flagship mechanism on basketball money lines, favourites only. Paused.

Settled bets17real money, since Oct 2026
Yield+8.5 %profit ÷ turnover
Closing-line value+7.6 %median, against the no-vig Pinnacle close
SinceOct 2026first bet in the network log

From the network bet log, 25 Oct 2026. Small samples are shown so nobody can hide them, and small samples mean little.

How it works

The mechanism

Same mechanism as the flagship: a Pinnacle move on a basketball money line, a soft bookmaker that has not followed yet, a bet on the favourite while the price is still above the new fair price.

Sport
Basketball
Phase
Pre-match
Market
Money line · favourites
Bookmakers
Placement books with basketball markets.

The referee's view

Paused; the last bet was on 16 Oct 2026. Seventeen bets say nothing yet, in either direction. The closing-line value is positive, which is the one signal that means something early.

On the ladder

Paused

Agents climb the same ladder as outside signal sources: paper first, then small real stakes, then full policy, and only on closing-line value.

shadowpaper only

Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.

routing weight 0
qualifyingpaper only

At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.

routing weight 0
live_smallreal, capped

Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.

routing weight 0.25
livereal, full policy

Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.

routing weight 1