Closing-line value
Best executable price at receipt against the no-vig closing price. Measured at the second we received the proposal, never at a timestamp someone else claims.
How it works
One engine, one referee, three ways in.
Manometer is a pipeline. It measures prices, turns the edges it finds into bets on the accounts of the people who own them, and scores everything against the closing line. Here is each stage, what it does, and the record it leaves behind.
1Pinnacle fair priceThe sharpest market in the world, with the margin removed. The reference for everything.
290+ bookmakersOdds pre-match and in-play, the direct feeds every few seconds, plus the exchanges.
3EdgesEvery price above fair is a candidate, and every candidate is paper-scored, bet or not.
4Agents and sourcesNamed strategies, ours and those of tipsters and syndicates, turn candidates into bets. Each has a scorecard and a tier.
5PlacementThe Agent places the bet on the account holder's account and reads the ticket back.
6SettlementResults from independent sources; the few entered by hand are marked. Every bet can be checked against its ticket.
7The refereeClosing-line value, yield, availability, uniqueness and EV honesty, for every bet and every signal.
Stage 1 · the reference
Pinnacle's price, with the margin taken out.
Pinnacle runs the sharpest, lowest-margin market and welcomes winning customers, so its prices absorb what the best bettors in the world know. Remove its margin and you have the closest thing to a true probability the market offers. That number is the fair price, and everything in the network is measured against it.
The margin is removed with the Shin method by default; proportional and other methods can be chosen on the board. A fair price that is too old is not used: before every automated bet the engine reads Pinnacle again, and a price older than 30 seconds does not count. The guide on how to calculate fair odds shows the arithmetic.
Why the closing line matters
The last fair price before kick-off is the closing line. If you consistently get better prices than the close, you have an edge, and you can see it after a few hundred bets instead of a few thousand. Profit at that sample size is mostly luck. Closing-line value is not.
That is why every promotion in the network, for our agents and for outside sources, is earned with closing-line value and never with profit alone.
Stage 2 · the market
90+ bookmakers, the direct feeds every few seconds.
Prices come in from more than 90 bookmakers, pre-match and in-play: Greek, German, British, EU, US, Canadian, Australian and offshore books, and the exchanges. The direct feeds update every few seconds, the wider market on a fixed cycle. Every price carries the second it was read, so a stale price is visible as stale.
Matching the same game across 90+ books is harder than it sounds. Team names differ, leagues differ, home and away get swapped. The engine matches in three layers and refuses a match when two candidates are almost equally good: a missed bet costs nothing, a wrong match costs money.
Placement today
The Agent places bets automatically on a growing part of them, with the ticket read back from the bookmaker after every bet. New bookmakers can be connected quickly. Connected today:
efbetElabetFonbetFonbet.grInterwettenMyStake / JackbitPame StoiximaStoiximanSuperbetTrustDicemore coming
Which of them you use, and whether that is permitted where you live, is your decision and your responsibility.
Stage 3 · the candidates
Every edge is scored, bet or not.
Any price above fair is a candidate. The engine records every candidate per game, outcome and bookmaker, and settles it on paper when the game ends. 18,820 of them so far.
This is what keeps the agents honest. When a new strategy shows +25 % after 60 bets, the referee already knows how thousands of similar candidates did. When the small number disagrees with the large one, the large one wins until the small one has grown up.
An example from the record
In-play draws: −12.5 % at flat stakes over 5,032 paper candidates. In-play home wins: +8.5 % over 3,861. That is why there is no in-play draw agent at full stakes, even though one small rule looks brilliant after 63 bets.
Referee paper record, 25 Oct 2026.
Stage 4 · the strategies
Agents and sources climb the same ladder.
An agent is a named strategy of ours. A signal source is someone else's: a tipster, a syndicate, a modeller. Both send the same thing to the engine, a proposal: event, market, selection, fair price, minimum odds, time to live. Both are scored the same way.
A proposal is never an order. The engine recomputes the expected value from the real executable price, never from the claim, and measures how much a source oversells its edge. Then it decides where, whether and how much.
shadowpaper only
Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.
routing weight 0qualifyingpaper only
At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.
routing weight 0live_smallreal, capped
Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.
routing weight 0.25livereal, full policy
Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.
routing weight 1Thresholds are the published policy. The tier can fall as well as rise.
Stage 5 · the bet
Placed by the Agent, on the account holder's account.
The Manometer Agent is the program that does the placing. The engine sends each bet just in time; the Agent places it, reads the ticket back, and reports within seconds, stamped on our side before any result exists.
What the account holder decides
- On or off. One switch in the Agent, any time.
- Bookmakers. Which of their bookmakers the Agent may use.
- Agents and stakes. Which agents bet on their accounts and how much per bet, chosen by them in their account. The Agent enforces the account's maximum stake.
Stage 6 · the result
Settled from independent results.
Results come from independent sources. The few entered by hand are marked as such. Every bet on a statement can be checked against its ticket in the bookmaker account.
A bet the system cannot confirm is shown as uncertain and does not count until it is cleared.
Where a statement comes from
| Part | Source |
|---|---|
| The bet | The Agent's placement report, with the ticket read back from the bookmaker |
| The result | Independent results services |
| The share | Profit above the high-water mark, computed once a month |
Stage 7 · the referee
Five scores, all or nothing.
The referee is the part of the network that proves what it received and when, and scores every source against the closing line. It runs around the clock and never places a bet.
Settled result
Profit and yield from independent results. Shown always, never enough to qualify on its own.
Availability
Was the price still there? A signal that arrives after the move is worthless, and its scorecard says so.
Uniqueness
Did the selection already show an edge of 2 % or more on our own board at receipt? A feed that re-sells Pinnacle drops adds nothing.
EV honesty
Expected value recomputed from the real price, divided by what the source claimed. Below 1, it oversells its edge, and that costs rating.
All or nothing
One scorecard per agent and per source. Every proposal counts, sealed ones included. There is no way to send a thousand picks and show the good hundred.
Who does what
The money stays with the people who own it.
This split is not a detail of the contract. It is the design.
| Step | Account holder | Signal source | Manometer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bookmaker accounts and money | owns and funds them | — | never touches them |
| Which agents run | chooses them in their account | — | shows every agent with its tier and record |
| Picks | — | seals and sends proposals | scores them, routes the proven ones |
| Placement | the Agent, on their account | — | sends the bet just in time |
| Stake per bet | sets it in their account | sets minimum odds and time to live | enforces minimum odds, time to live and maximum stake |
| Settlement | sees every line, exports it | sees every attributed bet | computes and invoices |
We sell measurement. Never the bet.The one sentence the whole design follows.
Bring signals, bring accounts and money, or bring yourself.
Every door is measured the same way. Pick yours.