testFootball · Pre-match · 1X2 · home or away

Soccer Value 1.70–2.70

Standing value without a price drop: home or away prices 1.70–2.70 that are 4–12 % above fair. Strong on paper; the real-money test runs at €7 stakes.

Settled bets55464 paper · +10.1 % on paper

Yield−3.9 %profit ÷ turnover

Closing-line value+6.5 %median, against the no-vig Pinnacle close

Since26 Oct 2026first bet in the network log

From the network bet log, 31 Oct 2026. Small samples are shown so nobody can hide them, and small samples mean little.

How it works

The mechanism

The referee paper-scores every edge on the board, not only the ones that are bet. Taking out the Pinnacle drops, a band stays positive on paper: pre-match, home or away, odds 1.70 to 2.70, expected value 4 to 12 %.

This agent bets exactly that band, at €7 flat, one bet per game, at most 25 bets and €175 per day, kick-off between 5 minutes and 48 hours away, bookmaker price no older than 40 seconds.

Paper is not money: availability and limits were untested. The real test has been running since 26 Oct 2026 and shows whether the paper number holds.

Sport: Football
Phase: Pre-match
Market: 1X2 · home or away
Bookmakers: The placement books you switched on in the Agent.

The referee's view

Paper record on 464 candidates: +10.1 % at flat stakes, almost the same as the flagship. The real test started on 26 Oct 2026: 55 settled bets, −3.9 %, median closing-line value +6.5 %. Far too few bets to read the yield; the closing-line value is the signal to watch.

On the ladder

Test run

Agents climb the same ladder as outside signal sources: paper first, then small real stakes, then full policy, and only on closing-line value. A test run sits beside that ladder: real money at small fixed stakes, on a rule that has not earned a rung yet.

shadowpaper only

Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.

routing weight 0

qualifyingpaper only

At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.

routing weight 0

live_smallreal, capped

Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.

routing weight 0.25

livereal, full policy

Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.

routing weight 1

← Soccer Live · Level team EV 6+ All agents Soccer Live · Leading 30–85 →