Soccer Drops < 2.70
Follows Pinnacle price drops and takes the stale price at the soft books before they correct. Prices below 2.70 only. Stops at kick-off.
From the network bet log, 25 Oct 2026. Small samples are shown so nobody can hide them, and small samples mean little.
The mechanism
When Pinnacle moves a price sharply, the rest of the market follows within seconds to minutes. In that gap, a soft bookmaker still offers the old price, which is now above the new fair price.
The agent watches every Pinnacle move on football 1X2, recomputes the no-vig fair price, checks every connected bookmaker for a price that is still above it, and places the bet where the edge is largest and the account can take it.
Before every bet the fair price is read again; a Pinnacle price older than 30 seconds is not used. One bet per selection, never two.
- Sport
- Football
- Phase
- Pre-match
- Market
- 1X2
- Bookmakers
- The placement books you switched on in the Agent.
The referee's view
Four months, 1,493 settled bets, and the two numbers that matter agree: the yield and the closing-line value point the same way. This is the only agent with a record long enough for full policy. Months differ widely, and recent weeks have run well below this average. Past results do not predict future results.
Tier: live
Agents climb the same ladder as outside signal sources: paper first, then small real stakes, then full policy, and only on closing-line value.
Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.
routing weight 0At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.
routing weight 0Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.
routing weight 0.25Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.
routing weight 1