Soccer Live · Draw at level
Backs the draw in level games late in the match, when soft books lag the live fair price.
From the network bet log, 31 Oct 2026. Small samples are shown so nobody can hide them, and small samples mean little.
The mechanism
In-play, between minute 60 and 85, with the score level. When the live fair price of the draw falls faster than a soft bookmaker moves, the agent takes the draw at the old price.
- Sport
- Football
- Phase
- In-play
- Market
- 1X2 · draw
- Bookmakers
- Placement books with in-play betting.
The referee's view
The referee paper-scores every in-play draw candidate: −12.5 % at flat stakes on 5,032 of them. This rule shows +13.3 % after 92 bets. When a small number disagrees with a large one, the large one wins until the small one grows up. That is what live_small is for.
Tier: live_small
Agents climb the same ladder as outside signal sources: paper first, then small real stakes, then full policy, and only on closing-line value.
Every new source and every new agent starts here. The full pipeline runs, nothing is placed.
routing weight 0At least 100 proposals over at least 30 days, at least 60 % of them executable. Closing-line value not proven yet.
routing weight 0Closing-line value proven: a close-beat rate of 55 % or more, or an average CLV of +1.5 % or more, over at least 60 proposals with a closing line.
routing weight 0.25Sustained closing-line value at live_small. A rolling CLV collapse demotes automatically.
routing weight 1