The formula
CLV = your odds ÷ fair closing odds − 1. The closing line is the last price before kick-off. "Fair" means with the bookmaker's margin taken out.
Example. You took 2.10. At kick-off the market closed at fair odds of 2.00.
2.10 ÷ 2.00 − 1 = +5 %. You got a price 5 % better than the market's final estimate.
Why the closing line matters
Odds move as money and information come in. By kick-off, the sharpest markets have absorbed what the best bettors in the world know, so their closing price is the best public estimate of the true probability. If you regularly get better prices than that estimate, you were ahead of the market when you bet.
Pinnacle is the usual yardstick because it runs a low margin and welcomes winning customers. Its price, with the margin removed, is the closest thing to a true probability the market offers.
How to calculate it yourself
- Write down the odds you took and the market.
- Just before kick-off, take the price of a sharp bookmaker for every outcome of that market.
- Remove the margin. Our guide on how to calculate fair odds shows how.
- Divide your odds by the fair closing odds and subtract 1.
Example with the margin. A two-way market closes at 1.95 and 1.95. The implied probabilities are 51.28 % each, 102.56 % together. Without the margin each side is 50 %, so the fair odds are 2.00. Your 2.10 gives +5 %.
Why profit alone tells you so little
Take 1,000 flat-stake bets at odds of 2.00 with no edge at all. The spread of the result, one standard deviation, is about 3.2 % of turnover, so a yield beyond plus or minus 6 % after 1,000 bets happens by pure chance roughly one time in twenty. Profit over a few hundred bets is mostly luck.
CLV moves far less from bet to bet, because it does not depend on who won. A positive average over a few hundred bets says much more than the profit over the same bets.
What CLV does not tell you
- It is an estimate, not money. Positive CLV has to turn into profit over time, and long losing runs still happen.
- Thin markets close badly. In small leagues the close is less informed, and a price can even move because of your own bet.
- In play there is no close. For live bets you can only compare your price with the fair price at that moment.
- You must have got the price. A price that was gone before the bet was accepted proves nothing.
How Manometer uses CLV
Every bet and every signal in the network is scored against the Pinnacle closing price with the margin removed. If Pinnacle publishes no close, the last fair price before kick-off counts. CS2 matches Pinnacle does not list count against the last Sportmarket line before kick-off, margin removed, and are marked on the scorecard. Promotions are earned with CLV, never with profit alone. You can see the result per agent on the agents page, and the board records CLV for your own bets automatically.
Next: What is a value bet? Past results do not predict future results. Betting is for adults only and can be addictive: responsible betting.